ePrints.FRI - University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Computer and Information Science

Predictive power of markets on the web

Nejc Ločniškar (2011) Predictive power of markets on the web. EngD thesis.

[img] PDF
Download (2336Kb)


    The goal of this work is to create a web based application for prediction of future events outcomes using prediction markets. We first analyze prediction markets, their purpose and their functioning. We present the wisdom of the crowds concept and its role in the application itself. We describe the software tools used in the development process, the architectural design of the solution and the implementation of prediction markets as part of a web application. The focus is on three types of prediction markets: mutual betting market, supply and demand market and liquid market with the use of LMSR. The life cycle of an event is presented, from its creation, prediction of possible outcomes, and its termination. Prediction markets are capable of producing accurate predictions, which can be as accurate and sometimes more accurate than classical surveys. Their use in a web application therefore encourages academical and commercial use.

    Item Type: Thesis (EngD thesis)
    Keywords: prediction markets, wisdom of the crowds, web application development, mutual betting market, LMSR algorithm, supply and demand market
    Number of Pages: 36
    Language of Content: Slovenian
    Mentor / Comentors:
    Name and SurnameIDFunction
    prof. dr. Marko Robnik Šikonja276Mentor
    Link to COBISS: http://www.cobiss.si/scripts/cobiss?command=search&base=50070&select=(ID=00008484436)
    Institution: University of Ljubljana
    Department: Faculty of Computer and Information Science
    Item ID: 1431
    Date Deposited: 06 Jul 2011 08:23
    Last Modified: 13 Aug 2011 00:39
    URI: http://eprints.fri.uni-lj.si/id/eprint/1431

    Actions (login required)

    View Item