Benjamin Novak (2016) How to succeed on the Kickstarter?. EngD thesis.
Abstract
Crowdfunding platforms such as Kickstarter are becoming increasingly popular. These platforms are widely used by development teams which are trying to get new buyers and supporters using different creative projects. However, success is not guaranteed since two thirds of the project suggestions fail to achieve their goal. In our thesis, we gathered descriptions and success of different projects on Kickstarter. Our goal was to create a model that could predict success of project compaigns. With this model, we also wanted to reach prediction accuracy AUC = 0,85 that could be compared with the results of other related studies. In the thesis, we present our solution and techniques of machine learning that were used to gather data. These models were later assessed with cross validation and new projects. The results showed that the most important attributes are the number of the projects supported by the author, the goal, the number of pictures in the description of the project and the award number. AUC score accomplished on the test data of the new projects was 0,93.
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